Insight
You Can't Control the Wave
Why markets are oceans and not machines, why timing beats brilliance, and why you can manufacture demand but never inevitability. A surfing analogy for startup founders. Originally published on Just Thoughts #59: You Can't Control the Wave.
Too long; did read
- • Supercycles are weather systems — no weather, no waves. Build inside one, don't try to invent one.
- • Timing + positioning explains most startup success attributed to brilliance.
- • Artificial waves (paid growth, incentives) are wave pools — controllable but finite. They rarely create categories.
- • Fundamentals — product clarity, team, narrative — let you stand up when the wave arrives.
- • Founders can influence conditions, but confusing influence with control is how the pumps shut off.
Five Lessons from the Ocean
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Prefer the full narrative? Read the original on Just Thoughts
Just Thoughts #59: You Can't Control the Wave